"The data shows that the failure was due to electricity overdrawal by some northern states and excess power supply from the western region. Conclusions can be drawn only after detailed investigations by the three member committee constituted by the power ministry on Monday," a senior official in the power ministry said.
These numbers and some energy interchange data convert to a possible set of facts to build an emerging picture of what actually could have happened.
The 5400 MW overdrawal in the Northern grid met a possible collapse of windmill power as winds collapsed. The hydro capacity was possibly not enough to respond to the windmill power supply collapse. The dynamics of load generation balance then might have led to instability and the generators ran away creating a shutdown.
A comparison of the energy capacity of energy interchange with windmill capacities from Western Region to Northern Region shows that there is plenty scope for instability and grid collapse, prima facie(EIWN).
1. Ashok Kumar R.2004.Dark satanic mills at