Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Mystery of the Malaysian MH 370 airliner disappearance solved.


A Citizen studies airplane occurrences and Solves the MH 370 Mystery.

By Ramaswami Ashok Kumar, B.E., M.E., Negentropist.
© 2018-2019 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar

1. The AF447 Air France Flight 31 May 2009 to June 1 2009: Crash

At 1 h 35 min 38, the ATLANTICO controller sent a SELCAL call, whose completion the
crew confirmed and thanked the ATLANTICO controller.
At 1 h 35 min 46, the ATLANTICO controller asked the crew to maintain FL350 and to
give an estimate at TASIL.
Between 1 h 35 min 53 and 1 h 36 min 14, the ATLANTICO controller asked the crew three times for its estimated time passing TASIL. The crew did not answer.
See the temperature sequence:




2. Similarly see the Temperature shock sequence for the Malaysian Boeing 777-200 ER which disappeared on 7 March 2014:






3. From Chicago O'Hare,IL to Boston,MA (USA), reached the top of descent into Boston when a strong odour of dirty socks occurred.
Plane A319-100, Reg No. N519NK, Ft NK-708, July,17 2015.   Captain died 50 days later.            







4. Incident: UPS B763,Boeing 767-300 at Raleigh Durham on Dec 5th 2018, engine fire indicaton:
A UPS United Parcel Service Boeing 767-300, registration N327UP performing flight 5X-2276 from Louisville,KY to Raleigh/Durham,NC (USA), was on approach to Raleigh Durham's runway 23R about to join final approach when the crew reported they had just got a fire indication.










5. Swift Air Boeing 737- A 400, registration N803TJ performing flight WQ-2228 (dep Dec 7th) from Long Beach,CA to Raleigh/Durham,NC (USA), was enroute at FL350 about 50nm north of Tulsa,OK (USA) when the crew reported a cargo smoke indication and diverted to Tulsa: . Emergency services did not find any trace of fire, heat or smoke.





6. Fig 8: 10Dec2018. SmokeinPLane: An Indigo Airbus A320-200N, registration VT-ITR performing flight 6E-237 from Jaipur to Kolkata (India): Smoke in Airplane. Crew and People affected: Emergency. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=TO_FZ3L4yus






7. A Spicejet de Havilland Dash 8-400, registration VT-SUQ performing flight SG-2695 from Delhi to Jodhpur (India) with 60 people on board, made an emergency landing at the airport in New Delhi on 4 Dec 2018, due to a cargo smoke indication. . Emergency services found no trace of fire, heat or smoke.






1. The study
What is common to the antecedents of a host of occurrences during airplane flights, 7 samples of which appear in the Figures above, is World Dam Dynamics. During monsoons the dams fill up. During the dry seasons the reservoirs behind the dams are depleted. The water demand from instant to instant are being met by water withdrawal from the hundreds of thousands of reservoirs in the world. Applying the Precautionary Principle one should stop such practices and make a scientific evaluation and arrive at the root cause of frequent airplane occurrences (and other occurrences in modern civilization) and make a policy to change our life styles to an acceptable level of risk by designing around the present huge lacuna in the design of modern civilization resulting in unacceptable loss of all kinds of life and their habitat.  The study together with other studies on various aspects of modern civilization by this author, leads us to the root cause of the occurrences, in this case of the airplane occurrences.
2. The nature of the dynamics applied on the aircraft.
2.1 The plane is effected by dam dynamics whether an occurrence on the plane is identified or not.
Whether an occurrence during a plane in flight took place or not, during flight the dynamics of dams will have exerted an entropic effect on the life of the plane. This follows from the fact that the dam dynamics are at the root cause of all and significantly all plane occurrences save bird strikes, which I have studied.
When a plane in flight experiences the surge of dam dynamics lasting for an impulse duration, it is enveloped by a rigid column of air, water, and earth. This enables the force and the bending moment surges exerted by dams to be instantaneously transmitted through a rigid archimedean leverage to the plane caught in this rigid envelope of the earth.
3. How Dam content changes are measured.
With hundreds of thousands of lakes in use in the world today one cannot hope to measure each of the changes at any instant and add them all up to get the total dam content change at any instant. Thus one has to design around this lack of information and get at the measure of the dam content change at reasonable intervals, that are of significantly higher frequency  than the speed of the aeroplane in flight. Fortunately during the dam era, earthquakes are being caused by dams frequently enough for assessment of dam content changes at the time an earthquake occurs. Such earthquakes are a proxy for the dam content changes. During the dam era most of the earthquakes are caused by dam dynamics(1).
4. Determination of shock acceleration input(m/s/s) and shock temperature input(K) during the flight.
Plane locations during a flight are available(2). Thus knowing the total worldwide sum of dam content changes at any instant, and knowing that this acts at the centre of gravity of the water masses behind the dams, and computing the centre of gravity of the dams at any given instant of plane location, the distance between the centre of gravity of dams and of the plane location, the force and the bending moment exerted on the plane by the dam content change are computed.  The archimedean lever from the centre of gravity of the dam to the plane through the medium of the earth also presents itself as a rigid lever to the instantaneous dam content change surge. Knowing the bending moment exerted on the plane by the dam surge, the energy of this bending moment is assumed all to be converted to the shock temperature input to the plane to get a ball park estimate. For this, E, the energy required to raise the temperature of the plane by 1 degree Kelvin is computed assuming a specific energy of 2000 Joules per K/kg. The bending moment energy in Nm is then divided by E to get the shock temperature rise in Kelvins of the aeroplane due to the dam surge.  Similarly, knowing the force,F,N, that is applied on the plane by the dam content change, and knowing the thrust,T,N developed by the engines, the ratio F/T is determined to highlight the enormity of the force applied on the plane by the total dam content change at a given instant during the flight of the plane. Again, the shock acceleration input to the plane, if all the force were used up to convert it to the input acceleration shock  is determined by dividing the applied Force,F,N by the mass,kg of the airplane. These figures, the shock input acceleration of the plane(vertically down in the dry season and vertically up during the mon soon) and the shock temperature input to the plane form the basis for analysis leading to the root cause of the occurrences.
5. The determination of the root cause of plane occurrences. The seven examples.
The example described above through figures are but real occurrences whose common antecedents are the very high temperature inputs to the planes and also the huge shocks in the form of acceleration inputs. The figures show the shock temperatures. Briefly, the fumes cause disorientation and suffocation because of the high temperature inputs resulting in volatile chemicals being generated from the plane contents and the materials of which the plane is made. This is inferred from the fact that all these occurrences show a peak temperature input(s) after which in every single instance the occurrence criticality occurs.
5.1 Thus in the example of the Air France June 1, 2009 crash, after the last communication with the pilot at 1:35 Z, no more communication by voice takes place because at 1:37Z, a  shock temperature input to the plane of 3.3 million degrees K  was applied by dam dynamic surge. Note that just prior to this at 00:53Z, more than double this shock input temperature had occurred. Fumes must have caused the incapacitation of the crew. That’s why the pilots did not answer the requests : Between 1 h 35 min 53 and 1 h 36 min 14, the ATLANTICO controller asked the crew three times for its estimated time passing TASIL. The crew did not answer.
5.2 In the disaster of the disappearance of the Malaysian Airliner MH 370, a 44 million degrees K shock input temperature occurred and nine minutes and 24 s later voice contact was lost and a minute a half later the plane went off KL ACC radar. But the pilots were fighting the disorientation caused by the fumes but did succeed in turning back the plane towards Malaysia. That’s why the military radar was able to track it in the reverse direction! Thereafter the crew and the passengers passed away inhaling the fumes.
5.3 From Chicago O'Hare,IL to Boston,MA (USA), reached the top of descent into Boston when a strong odour of dirty socks occurred. Plane A319-100, Reg No. N519NK, Ft NK-708, July,17 2015.        Captain died 50 days later.  Carbon monoxide but probably other volatiles as well at shock input temperatures of billions to hundreds of millions at an average of 230 million degrees K. See details of computations in Appendix 1.
5.4  Example 4 above:  Incident: UPS B763,Boeing 767-300 at Raleigh Durham on Dec 5th 2018, engine fire indication for an impulse shock input temperature, lasting for a jiffy but of 280 million degrees K!  Naturally, emergency services did not find any evidence of fire.
5.5. Example 5 above:
 5. Swift Air Boeing 737- A 400, registration N803TJ performing flight WQ-2228 (dep Dec 7th) from Long Beach,CA to Raleigh/Durham,NC (USA), was enroute at FL350 about 50nm north of Tulsa,OK (USA) when the crew reported a cargo smoke indication and diverted to Tulsa: . Emergency services did not find any trace of fire, heat or smoke. The instantaneous like impulse of 414 million K and mean of 13.34 million K.
5.6 Example 6 above: 10Dec2018. SmokeinPLane: An Indigo Airbus A320-200N, registration VT-ITR performing flight 6E-237 from Jaipur to Kolkata (India): Smoke in Airplane. Crew and People affected: Emergency.
https://www.youtube.com/watchv=TO_FZ3L4yus
To view this video please copy and paste it on the address bar and search with google.
Maximum shock: 161 million degrees K, mean 11 million K.  The video shows scenes on board the flight. Scary scenario indeed going by the examples cited.
5.7. A Spicejet de Havilland Dash 8-400, registration VT-SUQ performing flight SG-2695 from Delhi to Jodhpur (India) with 60 people on board, made an emergency landing at the airport in New Delhi on 4 Dec 2018, due to a cargo smoke indication.  Emergency services found no trace of fire, heat or smoke.(Example 7 above). At 9:27Z, shock input temperature: 1.46 million K.
References.
2. www.flightaware.com
3. Aviation Herald for the incidences.

Appendix 1
From Chicago O'Hare,IL to Boston,MA (USA), reached the top of descent into Boston when a strong odour of dirty socks occurred. Plane A319-100, Reg No. N519NK, Ft NK-708, July,17 2015.        Captain died 50 days later.  Carbon monoxide but probably other volatiles as well at shock input temperatures of billions to hundreds of millions at an average of 230 million degrees K.


        Moment   Seismic                                                                    
  Earthquake     Magnitude Type Moment                                                                    
Date and Time,Z Latitude Longitude depth,km MM   SM=10^(1.5*MM-10)                                                                    
2015-07-17T18:49:53.720Z -18.1214 -178.189 536.1 5.8 mww 0.050118723   From Chicago O'Hare,IL to Boston,MA (USA), reached the top of descent into Boston when a strong odour of dirty socks occurred                                             Mean                   
2015-07-17T18:53:38.000Z 66.3633 -153.667 10 1.9 ml 7.07946E-08   Plane A319-100, Reg No. N519NK, Ft NK-708       July,17 2015.   Captain died 50 days later.           A319-100                     Shock               Sum Mean
2015-07-17T18:54:37.000Z 66.3905 -153.721 4.6 2.2 ml 1.99526E-07   Water Centre of Gravity   Distance,   dBCM=   Total Maximum       Energy         Shock           Temp             Shock Shock Shock
2015-07-17T18:54:40.321Z 37.2911 -114.657 5.1 1.7 ml 3.54813E-08   MomentCG- of water masses   CG to   WMCGQ/ F,N= Engine Takeoff       to raise         Input         Deg Kelvin Input             Input Input Input
2015-07-17T18:56:54.000Z 66.3602 -153.48 8.9 2.1 ml 1.41254E-07   Earthquake CG   Earthquake   fDBCM, 10^12*9.81* Thrust, Weight,   Accln Spe Energy Temp by       WMCGPlane Temp         Shock Input betwn Qs             Temp Temp Temp
2015-07-17T18:58:16.000Z 66.3155 -153.378 3.2 2.4 ml 3.98107E-07   WMCGQ,Nm Latitude Longitude dCGQ.km fDBCM BCM dBCM T,N MTOW,kg F/T m/s/s J/kg/K 1K Aircraft Location dCGPlane,km Nm Rise,K Time Hrs UTC Time,diff,Hrs. Diff Time,secs. MeanTBQ,secs. Mean Temp deg Kel           Time,h,Z Rise,K Rise,K Rise,K
2015-07-17T19:18:35.430Z -11.8702 66.1182 11.29 4.8 mb 0.001584893 1 8.8914E+16 25.234 91.8811 4981.74871 4.8871E+19 0.001819 17847943694 240000 75500 74366.43 236396.6 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 2.24E+17 1.48E+09 19.30984           1 17-07-2015 19 18 35.43 19.30984 1.48E+09 1.48E+09 1482364596
2015-07-17T19:21:18.880Z 37.05 -97.9202 5.82 2.36 ml 3.46737E-07 2 1.9452E+13 25.234 91.8811 13013.7977 1.27665E+20 1.52E-07 1494741.016 240000 75500 6.228088 19.79789 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 1.87E+13 124146             2 17-07-2015 19 21 18.88 19.35524 124146 1.48E+09 741244371.2
2015-07-17T19:22:23.210Z -6.3202 149.0544 49.31 4.3 mb 0.000281838 3 1.5811E+16 25.234 91.8811 7101.68816 6.96676E+19 0.000227 2226426723 240000 75500 9276.778 29489.1 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 2.79E+16 1.85E+08             3 17-07-2015 19 22 23.21 19.37311 1.85E+08 1.67E+09 555801689
2015-07-17T19:27:26.745Z 41.8879 -119.622 8.2 1.8 ml 5.01187E-08 4 2.8117E+12 25.234 91.8811 11878.8279 1.16531E+20 2.41E-08 236698.9948 240000 75500 0.986246 3.135086 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 2.97E+12 19659.08             4 17-07-2015 19 27 26.745 19.45743 19659.08 1.67E+09 416856181.5
2015-07-17T19:29:39.000Z 53.5194 -165.214 42.3 2.4 ml 3.98107E-07 5 2.2334E+13 25.234 91.8811 8576.85531 8.4139E+19 2.65E-07 2604005.64 240000 75500 10.85002 34.49014 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 3.27E+13 216276.2             5 17-07-2015 19 29 39 19.49417 216276.2 1.67E+09 333528200.4
2015-07-17T19:30:42.300Z 36.7435 -97.5702 1.418 2.8 ml 1.58489E-06 6 8.8914E+13 25.234 91.8811 13052.6757 1.28047E+20 6.94E-07 6811934.369 240000 75500 28.38306 90.2243 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 8.54E+13 565766.6             6 17-07-2015 19 30 42.3 19.51175 565766.6 1.67E+09 278034461.5
2015-07-17T19:35:03.190Z 19.3005 -155.882 13.769 1.6 md 2.51189E-08 7 1.4092E+12 25.234 91.8811 11174.6893 1.09624E+20 1.29E-08 126105.6509 240000 75500 0.52544 1.670274 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 1.58E+12 10473.73             7 17-07-2015 19 35 3.19 19.58422 10473.73 1.67E+09 238316748.9
2015-07-17T19:35:53.200Z 17.899 -68.6928 147 3.4 Md 1.25893E-05 8 7.0627E+14 25.234 91.8811 14778.1937 1.44974E+20 4.87E-06 47791278.49 240000 75500 199.1303 632.9971 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 5.99E+14 3969314             8 17-07-2015 19 35 53.2 19.59811 3969314 1.67E+09 209023319.6
2015-07-17T19:36:53.890Z 36.9174 69.2987 24.08 4.1 mwr 0.000141254 9 7.9245E+15 25.234 91.8811 2502.68495 2.45513E+19 0.000323 3166385745 240000 75500 13193.27 41938.88 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 3.97E+16 2.63E+08             9 17-07-2015 19 36 53.89 19.61497 2.63E+08 1.94E+09 215019041.1
2015-07-17T19:39:44.170Z -5.529 152.0598 38.01 5.2 mb 0.006309573 10 3.5397E+17 25.234 91.8811 7339.32256 7.19988E+19 0.004916 48229641013 240000 75500 200956.8 638803.2 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 6.05E+17 4.01E+09             10 17-07-2015 19 39 44.17 19.66227 4.01E+09 5.94E+09 594089402.1
2015-07-17T19:42:37.000Z 62.7028 -151.114 86.3 1.2 ml 6.30957E-09 11 3.5397E+11 25.234 91.8811 8786.54509 8.6196E+19 4.11E-09 40285.78794 240000 75500 0.167857 0.533587 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 5.05E+11 3345.944             11 17-07-2015 19 42 37 19.71028 3345.944 5.94E+09 540081578.8
2015-07-17T19:42:38.569Z 41.8542 -119.658 7.6 2 ml 0.0000001 12 5.6101E+12 25.234 91.8811 11880.6088 1.16549E+20 4.81E-08 472205.789 240000 75500 1.967524 6.254381 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 5.92E+12 39219.15             12 17-07-2015 19 42 38.569 19.71071 39219.15 5.94E+09 495078048.8
2015-07-17T19:49:42.847Z 39.2355 -114.924 17.7 1.9 ml 7.07946E-08 13 3.9716E+12 25.234 91.8811 12324.4534 1.20903E+20 3.28E-08 322256.9835 240000 75500 1.342737 4.268304 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 4.04E+12 26765.12             13 17-07-2015 19 49 42.847 19.82857 26765.12 5.94E+09 456997180.8
2015-07-17T19:51:18.340Z 36.8331 69.2581 13.55 4.1 mwr 0.000141254 14 7.9245E+15 25.234 91.8811 2502.04455 2.45451E+19 0.000323 3167196184 240000 75500 13196.65 41949.62 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 3.97E+16 2.63E+08             14 17-07-2015 19 51 18.34 19.85509 2.63E+08 6.2E+09 443143962.5
2015-07-17T19:56:12.300Z 18.0809 -67.6067 100 3 Md 3.16228E-06 15 1.7741E+14 25.234 91.8811 14711.6278 1.44321E+20 1.23E-06 12058943.92 240000 75500 50.2456 159.7211 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 1.51E+14 1001558             15 17-07-2015 19 56 12.3 19.93675 1001558 6.21E+09 413667802.2
2015-07-17T20:00:47.970Z 34.41367 -118.988 14.75 1.28 ml 8.31764E-09 16 4.6663E+11 25.234 91.8811 12626.5363 1.23866E+20 3.77E-09 36956.06942 240000 75500 0.153984 0.489484 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 4.63E+11 3069.394             16 17-07-2015 20 0 47.97 20.01333 3069.394 6.21E+09 387813756.4
2015-07-17T20:15:49.000Z 63.0656 -151.381 4.4 1.4 ml 1.25893E-08 17 7.0627E+11 25.234 91.8811 8752.4318 8.58614E+19 8.23E-09 80694.00469 240000 75500 0.336225 1.068795 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 1.01E+12 6702.057 20.26361 0.953769444 3433.57 201.9747 3.65E+08 1807165 17 17-07-2015 20 15 49 20.26361 6702.057 6.21E+09 365001576.7
2015-07-17T20:20:52.000Z 59.029 -136.64 6 2 ml 0.0000001 18 5.6101E+12 25.234 91.8811 9642.79668 9.45958E+19 5.93E-08 581790.9944 240000 75500 2.424129 7.705841 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 7.3E+12 48320.77             18 17-07-2015 20 20 52 20.34778 48320.77 6.21E+09 344726395.8
2015-07-17T20:25:58.000Z 51.7984 -172.964 41.5 2.5 ml 5.62341E-07 19 3.1548E+13 25.234 91.8811 8167.88612 8.0127E+19 3.94E-07 3862427.409 240000 75500 16.09345 51.15798 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 4.84E+13 320794.7             19 17-07-2015 20 25 58 20.43278 320794.7 6.21E+09 326599785.2
2015-07-17T20:31:54.000Z 61.3739 -150.496 47.2 1.4 ml 1.25893E-08 20 7.0627E+11 25.234 91.8811 8898.00939 8.72895E+19 8.09E-09 79373.79489 240000 75500 0.330724 1.051309 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 9.95E+11 6592.407             20 17-07-2015 20 31 54 20.53167 6592.407 6.21E+09 310270125.6
2015-07-17T20:38:36.000Z 51.1165 -179.894 13 2.2 ml 1.99526E-07 21 1.1194E+13 25.234 91.8811 7733.19971 7.58627E+19 1.48E-07 1447474.024 240000 75500 6.031142 19.17184 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 1.82E+13 120220.2             21 17-07-2015 20 38 36 20.64333 120220.2 6.21E+09 295501082.5
2015-07-17T20:39:30.000Z 64.7446 -152.688 29.8 1.9 ml 7.07946E-08 22 3.9716E+12 25.234 91.8811 8595.42037 8.43211E+19 4.71E-08 462064.7977 240000 75500 1.92527 6.120064 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 5.79E+12 38376.89             22 17-07-2015 20 39 30 20.65833 38376.89 6.21E+09 282070959.5
2015-07-17T20:45:17.820Z 33.86617 -117.501 -0.54 1.67 ml 3.1989E-08 23 1.7946E+12 25.234 91.8811 12747.4034 1.25052E+20 1.44E-08 140782.3704 240000 75500 0.586593 1.864667 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 1.77E+12 11692.71             23 17-07-2015 20 45 17.82 20.75495 11692.71 6.21E+09 269807513.1
2015-07-17T20:45:34.030Z 36.55883 -121.156 6.951 1.5 md 1.77828E-08 24 9.9763E+11 25.234 91.8811 12320.8737 1.20868E+20 8.25E-09 80970.81262 240000 75500 0.337378 1.072461 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 1.02E+12 6725.047             24 17-07-2015 20 45 34.03 20.75945 6725.047 6.21E+09 258565813.6
2015-07-17T20:46:44.700Z 17.9342 -63.8945 25 2.6 Md 7.94328E-07 25 4.4563E+13 25.234 91.8811 14545.5362 1.42692E+20 3.12E-07 3063657.904 240000 75500 12.76524 40.57825 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 3.84E+13 254452.7             25 17-07-2015 20 46 44.7 20.77908 254452.7 6.21E+09 248233359.2
2015-07-17T21:13:08.000Z 66.4106 -153.983 11.2 2.5 ml 5.62341E-07 26 3.1548E+13 25.234 91.8811 8445.84538 8.28537E+19 3.81E-07 3735311.954 240000 75500 15.5638 49.47433 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 4.68E+13 310237.1             26 17-07-2015 21 13 8 21.21889 310237.1 6.21E+09 238697854.5
2015-07-17T21:21:17.000Z 62.2571 -147.933 15 1.1 ml 4.46684E-09 27 2.5059E+11 25.234 91.8811 8947.6841 8.77768E+19 2.85E-09 28006.53376 240000 75500 0.116694 0.370947 2000 1.51E+08 41.97861 -87.9047 12541.34 3.51E+11 2326.088 21.35472 1.091111111 3928 392.8 102403.7 260.7019 27 17-07-2015 21 21 17 21.35472 2326.088 6.21E+09 229857279.4
2015-07-17T21:24:38.030Z 19.36933 -155.431 8.875 1.98 md 9.33254E-08                                     2.3E+08 0.075736 272.6507407 843046.6       28 17-07-2015 21 24 38.03 21.41056 2.3E+08 6.44E+09 229857279.4