Estimating consequences
of Uranium used in the World and for producing HEU at RMP,Chickkadadanahalli
during 1991 to 2018.
Ramaswami Ashok Kumar, Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya
Mandal, 299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.
© 2018-2019 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
Abstract
Applying the precautionary
principle, a research was undertaken by me on the characteristics of world
fatal cancers as a function of cumulative uranium mining and compared the
findings with those for the cancers in Southern Karnataka districts and the estimated
uranium(1) used in the Highly enriched uranium(HEU) plant RMP at Mysore. The findings in both instances
are significant and requires informed independent authorities in the community
to confirm these findings asap. Till then such activities, by the precautionary
principle must be halted.
Keys: Uranium,
ECRR2010 Regulations, Fatal cancers, causal inference, uranium’s infinite
biological effectiveness and fatal cancers.
Prelude
Living in harmony
with nature must be the bottomline of civilization: Imperishable is the
Supreme. Its dwelling in each individual being is called adhyatma. The offering
in return which causes the genesis and support of beings is called Karma. – The
Bhagavadgita: Timeless and authorless.
1. Estimating uranium
use at RMP, Mysore.
Let us assume 300 kg of HEU at 30% enrichment was used in
the nuclear reactor submarine tested by India as given by Rajaraman(1):
“Ramana estimated the capacity of the centrifuge plant by
working backward from the
announcement that the
prototype of this
reactor’s core was tested
in 2000–2001. He
estimates the power
requirements of the
submarine and concludes that the core that was tested would have had
about 90 kg of U-235, which, at 30% enrichment, would be contained in about 300
kg of HEU. In order to be available for use in testing the prototype reactor in
2000–01, this HEU
would have had
to be produced
by the (Chickkadadanahalli) RMP centrifuges from about 1991 to 1999. For
natural uranium feed and assuming that the depleted uranium “tails” contain
0.3% of U-235, it would take about 60 kilogram Separative Work Units (kgSWU) to
produce a kg of 30% HEU or 18,000 kgSWU for the 300 kg estimated to be in the
core.
This results in an average of 2,250 kgSWU per year in the
years 1991–99. Assuming this capacity started from 1,500 kgSWU/yr in 1991 and
was increased at a steady rate since then, Ramana arrives at 3,000 kgSWU/yr in
1999 in order that the average may be 2,250 kgSWU /yr during that period. If
SWU capacity has continued to grow linearly at the same rate (at 175 kgSWU /yr
annually) India would have about 4,500 kgSWU/yr by now, sufficient to produce
75 kg of 30% HEU annually.” (1)
2.0 Location
The Google Earth Pro image below provides the location of
the RMP plant in Mysore for use in my research:
3.0 Uranium use and
cancer incidences in South Karnataka.
Natural Uranium Feed: 0.711% U235. To produce 300 Kg 30% HEU
we require 1392.405 kg of U235. For this we require 195837.5616 Kg of natural
uranium. The Rare Materials Plant at Chickkadadanahalli is the source of the
use of this uranium. The consequences of this use are fatal cancers in Southern
Karnataka. The map (16) shows the cancer incidences in Southern Karnataka
during 2007 to 2012 March. Mysore taluka is the extreme hotspot of fatal
cancers as revealed by this map. Mysore District has the highest number of
fatal cancers of all the Karnataka districts so far. See Table A derived from
16 for a feel of the cancer epidemic:
4.0 Fatal Cancers in
South Karnataka due to internal uranium contamination from RMP in Mysuru Taluka,1990-2018
In this article I show that Fatal cancers estimated for the
world from 1990 to 2016(8) follow significantly the cumulative quantitiy of uranium mined globally(13,18,19).See
Table 1 and Figure 1 and Table 2. In a similar way, the fatal cancers in Mysuru
taluka, Mysuru district and the total of fatal cancers in Southern districts of
Karnataka, namely Mysuru, Mandya, Hassan, Kodagu and Chamarajanagar follow the
activity of uranium at the Highly Enriched Uranium(HEU) plant located in
Chikkadadanahalli in Mysuru taluka(Table 1 below). Data for observed incidences
of cancer(16) are used to derive the results as shown in Table 1. The estimates of fatal cancers derived using
ECRR 2010 dose coefficients(Table 1a in Table 2) agree rigidly with the
observed incidence figures for Mysuru Taluka, Mysuru district and the total for
Southern Districts of Karnataka(2007 to 2011)(Ref 16).
Refer Table 2 for the
rigid follow of World Fatal Cancers with Total Uranium mined since 1945.
Referring to Table 2,
the observed worldwide annual estimates of all fatal cancers as a percent of
their maximum during 1990 to 2016(max in 2016) rigidly follow the percent
activity,Bq, of cumulative annual quantities of uranium mined in the world as
determined by the correlation coefficient 0.99, df=24, p(t-test)= 5.15E-22, and
by the Chi-sq test(df=25,p>0.9999). The ECRR 2010 dose coefficient based
estimate of excess world fatal cancers agree significantly with the estimates
in Ref 8 as shown in Table 2, Chi-sq Test, df=25, p> 0.9999.
5.0 Conclusions
The causal inference
that uranium use(TENORM) is the cause of world cancer epidemic is firmly
established in this investigation. The RMP estimated uranium use is also
similarly established as the cause of observed hotspot of cancer in Mysore
taluka and district as well as in total in the Southern Karnataka districts
Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Mandya, Hassan and Kodagu. This study may be confirmed
by applying the precautionary principle and conducting a thorough audit of
cancers in each district and taluka of India on a war footing with a long
duration data collection and transparent availability of data on a public
website asap. In this connection an online Atlas for Worldwide uranium use on a
micro basis in the form of an input output table including incident cancers and
fatal cancers is long overdue. See Ref 20 for an assessment of internal radioactive emitters. And how Uranium's infinite biological effectiveness is ignored elsewhere(21,22). See also Ref 23.
5.0 References
1. R. Rajaraman. 2008. Estimates of India’s Fissile Material
Stocks. Science and Global Security, 16:74–86.
2. Census 2011. Mysore District,Karnataka.
9. Development of an Atlas of Cancer in
at
11.
12.
13
Global uranium mine production from 2002 to 2017 (in metric tons).
Statistica.
14.
15.
16
Madhu B,
Srinath KM, Rajendran V, Devi MP, Ashok NC, Balasubramanian S. Spatio-Temporal
Pattern of Breast Cancer - Case Study of Southern Karnataka, India. Journal
of Clinical and Diagnostic Research : JCDR. 2016;10(4):LC20-LC24.
doi:10.7860/JCDR/2016/19042.7666.
17.
2010
Recommendations of the ECRR
The
Health Effects of Exposure to Low Doses of Ionising Radiation
Edited
by:
Chris
Busby, with Rosalie Bertell, Inge Schmitz Feuerhake Molly Scott Cato
and
Alexey Yablokov
Published
for the ECRR by:
Green
Audit Press, Castle Cottage, Aberystwyth, SY23 1DZ, United Kingdom
http://www.inaco.co.jp/isaac/shiryo/pdf/ECRR_2010_recommendations_of_the_european_committee_on_radiation_risk.pdf
http://www.inaco.co.jp/isaac/shiryo/pdf/ECRR_2010_recommendations_of_the_european_committee_on_radiation_risk.pdf
18
19 Production from mines (tonnes U)
http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx
20. Radioactive Radiation, the true cause of Cancer at
https://owndoc.com/cancer/radiation-true-cause-of-cancer/
extracted on 6 October 2018.
21. Carelessly abandoning uranium to the environment. See how Uranium's infinite bioogical effectiveness is ignored:
http://www.wise-uranium.org/pdf/jadkoide.pdf
22. A look at Iraq's cancers at
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2013/Health%20and%20Health%20Care%20Decline%20in%20Iraq.pdf
23. https://highcourtchd.gov.in/sub_pages/top_menu/about/events_files/Depuran.pdf
20. Radioactive Radiation, the true cause of Cancer at
https://owndoc.com/cancer/radiation-true-cause-of-cancer/
extracted on 6 October 2018.
21. Carelessly abandoning uranium to the environment. See how Uranium's infinite bioogical effectiveness is ignored:
http://www.wise-uranium.org/pdf/jadkoide.pdf
22. A look at Iraq's cancers at
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2013/Health%20and%20Health%20Care%20Decline%20in%20Iraq.pdf
23. https://highcourtchd.gov.in/sub_pages/top_menu/about/events_files/Depuran.pdf
Re: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-message-from-the-ipcc-report/article35946913.ece?homepage=true
ReplyDeleteThis article is a big zero because it ignores my work on dams as the principal cause of many catastrophes befalling the wild man and his industrial revolution. In living in this world by his own will and skill, the stupidest peasant or tribesman is more competent than the most intelligent worker or technician or intellectual in a society of specialists- Wendell Berry In the Unsettling of America- Culture and Agriculture. See Ramaswami Ashok Kumar. 2021. PERFECT DESIGNS. Blogspot. Also see by the same author,
http://modernandnormal.blogspot.com/2006/09/modern-and-normal-civilizations.html