The disaster of development at AAREY: Entirely Avoidable and constitutes useless action

The Saga of Aarey Colony and the metro displacable car shed

Ramaswami Ashok Kumar, Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal,299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007. 
Rev 26 Aug 2019                                                                                        

© 2019 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar                                           

The photosynthesis ecology at Aarey and the saga that  evolves around it for the give and take cooperation requirement regarding annual natural regeneration of the Aarey forest.      

Photosynthesis:                                                                                                                                              

                6CO2+12H2O+photons=C6H12O6+6O2+6H2O                                                                                                                                          

ASIA: AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREMENT IN ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS IN NATURAL REGENERATION BY BROAD CATEGORY (TONNES DRY  MATTER/HA/YEAR)= 6.5. 
INDIA: TABLE 3A.1.4AVERAGE GROWING STOCK ABOVEGROUND VOLUME (1) 43 m^3/ha  AND ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS CONTENT (2) 73 t/ha (DRY MATTER) IN FOREST IN 2000.(SOURCE FRA2000) 
                 

 Increment of CO2 absorption and O2 release that is lost to the metro car shed.                                                                                                                                   

The Carbon content is    2227500 kg C in the dry biomass of 4455000 kg on 33 ha of Aarey Colony.

4455000 kg is(above and below ground): 13.5 kg/m^2*33 ha*10^4 m^2/ha. Dry biomass data for density and annual growth from Reference 3, in the public interest, as it is now a decade and a half since its publication .                                                                                              

The   amount of CO2 in tree biomass is estimated on 33 ha = 2227500x3.67= 8174925 kg.                                                                  

The  amount of O2 released by the trees on 33 ha=2227500x32/12=5940000 kg.                                                                  

The 33 Ha car shed will therefore consume O2 at about a tenth of this rate per year.                                                                                                                                                        

And CO2 unabsorbed is of the amount above of 8174925 kg.                                                                                                                                                     

A human consumes oxygen amounting to 0.84 kg/day or 306.6 kg/y(1)                                                                              

Locally and this is important, locally the O2 equivalent requirement of about 20000 human years will be lost.                                                

The CO2 release by the humans per year is 0.84x365x44/32=421.575 kg per human/y                                                     

The CO2 not absorbed by the car shed is  of 19391 human-years

The India development by NITI AAYOG  rarely produces oxygen or absorbs CO2!                                                                                                                                                             

Consider the whole of maldevelopment in Mumbai by writing an Input Output Matrix to estimate the dirt produced per cubic meter like CO, SO2, CO2, PM 10, PM 2.5 including heavy metals like uranium , the O2 lost and the CO2 not absorbed.                                                                                                                                               

33 ha for the car shed means 17915 persons/sqkm or     0.017915 persons/m^2 or 179.15 per ha and 5911.95 persons on 33 ha of Aarey Colony.           

The Aarey forest supports more than 3 times the persons presently occupying 33 Ha of Aarey Colony in Goregoan .The ecological setting cannot be recreated just by a planting of trees. There are in the forest some species which are dominant, some which are less common and many which are rare. This has evolved over evolutionary time scales. Also because, where is space for planting the trees?  And where is the time? Look at the PM 2.5 Pollution at Vashi on 26 October 2018 was 301 micrograms/m^3 which is severe. Source: Safar India Navi Mumbai.                                                                                                                                                

They could not find land for the Narmada dam oustees and how can they find it here in dense Mumbai, that too for humble trees?
WATER LOST BECAUSE OF THE CAR SHED
Maharashtra: 50% is suffering droughts because of indiscriminate India development. See the car shed and compare it with the Aarey Forest 33 Ha watershed:

The water that would not be recharging the groundwaters at Aarey by the 33 Ha of trees lost to the car shed:

The tree transpires its own weight of water in a day(2).

The 33 ha of Aarey Colony is assumed to have a dry biomass density of 13 kg/m^2

The dry biomass on 33 Ha is  4455000 kg.

This is the quantity of water that the car shed trees transpire everyday and hence recharging this amount to the water table.

This is the drinking water per day at 40 l/d per person for 111375 persons.

The population of Goregon is 7155 persons.

The Aarey colony forest  of 33 Ha would give 40  l/d drinking water for 16 times the number of Goregoans!

Never kill trees even for an ostensibly good reason.

References.

1. Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 2007. 33(3):220–226.

 https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/jrnl/2007/nrs_2007_nowak_001.pdf

2. R. Ashok Kumar.2008.  Reforest Mother Earth to Live! at
 https://practicethevedas.blogspot.com/2008/05/reforest-mother-earth-to-live.html

3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2003.Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,

Land-Use Change and Forestry

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme

UNEP

Edited by

Jim Penman, Michael Gytarsky, Taka Hiraishi, Thelma Krug, Dina Kruger,

Riitta Pipatti, Leandro Buendia, Kyoko Miwa, Todd Ngara,

Kiyoto Tanabe and Fabian Wagner

Causal Inference of fatal cancers-a macro perspective

Estimating consequences of Uranium used in the World and for producing HEU at RMP,Chickkadadanahalli during 1991 to 2018.

Ramaswami Ashok Kumar, Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal, 299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.

© 2018-2019 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar

Abstract

Applying the precautionary principle, a research was undertaken by me on the characteristics of world fatal cancers as a function of cumulative uranium mining and compared the findings with those for the cancers in Southern Karnataka districts and the estimated uranium(1) used in the Highly enriched uranium(HEU) plant RMP at Mysore. The findings in both instances are significant and requires informed independent authorities in the community to confirm these findings asap. Till then such activities, by the precautionary principle must be halted.

Keys: Uranium, ECRR2010 Regulations, Fatal cancers, causal inference, uranium’s infinite biological effectiveness and fatal cancers.

Prelude

Living in harmony with nature must be the bottomline of civilization: Imperishable is the Supreme. Its dwelling in each individual being is called adhyatma. The offering in return which causes the genesis and support of beings is called Karma. – The Bhagavadgita: Timeless and authorless.

1. Estimating uranium use at RMP, Mysore.

Let us assume 300 kg of HEU at 30% enrichment was used in the nuclear reactor submarine tested by India as given by Rajaraman(1):

“Ramana estimated the capacity of the centrifuge plant by working backward  from  the  announcement  that  the  prototype  of  this  reactor’s  core  was tested  in  2000–2001.  He  estimates  the  power  requirements  of  the  submarine and concludes that the core that was tested would have had about 90 kg of U-235, which, at 30% enrichment, would be contained in about 300 kg of HEU. In order to be available for use in testing the prototype reactor in 2000–01,  this  HEU  would  have  had  to  be  produced  by  the (Chickkadadanahalli) RMP   centrifuges from about 1991 to 1999. For natural uranium feed and assuming that the depleted uranium “tails” contain 0.3% of U-235, it would take about 60 kilogram Separative Work Units (kgSWU) to produce a kg of 30% HEU or 18,000 kgSWU for the 300 kg estimated to be in the core.

This results in an average of 2,250 kgSWU per year in the years 1991–99. Assuming this capacity started from 1,500 kgSWU/yr in 1991 and was increased at a steady rate since then, Ramana arrives at 3,000 kgSWU/yr in 1999 in order that the average may be 2,250 kgSWU /yr during that period. If SWU capacity has continued to grow linearly at the same rate (at 175 kgSWU /yr annually) India would have about 4,500 kgSWU/yr by now, sufficient to produce 75 kg of 30% HEU annually.” (1)

2.0  Location

The Google Earth Pro image below provides the location of the RMP plant in Mysore for use in my research:

3.0 Uranium use and cancer incidences in South Karnataka.

Natural Uranium Feed: 0.711% U235. To produce 300 Kg 30% HEU we require 1392.405 kg of U235. For this we require 195837.5616 Kg of natural uranium. The Rare Materials Plant at Chickkadadanahalli is the source of the use of this uranium. The consequences of this use are fatal cancers in Southern Karnataka. The map (16) shows the cancer incidences in Southern Karnataka during 2007 to 2012 March. Mysore taluka is the extreme hotspot of fatal cancers as revealed by this map. Mysore District has the highest number of fatal cancers of all the Karnataka districts so far. See Table A derived from 16 for a feel of the cancer epidemic:

4.0 Fatal Cancers in South Karnataka due to internal uranium contamination from RMP in Mysuru Taluka,1990-2018

In this article I show that Fatal cancers estimated for the world from 1990 to 2016(8) follow significantly the cumulative  quantitiy of uranium mined globally(13,18,19).See Table 1 and Figure 1 and Table 2. In a similar way, the fatal cancers in Mysuru taluka, Mysuru district and the total of fatal cancers in Southern districts of Karnataka, namely Mysuru, Mandya, Hassan, Kodagu and Chamarajanagar follow the activity of uranium at the Highly Enriched Uranium(HEU) plant located in Chikkadadanahalli in Mysuru taluka(Table 1 below). Data for observed incidences of cancer(16) are used to derive the results as shown in Table 1.  The estimates of fatal cancers derived using ECRR 2010 dose coefficients(Table 1a in Table 2) agree rigidly with the observed incidence figures for Mysuru Taluka, Mysuru district and the total for Southern Districts of Karnataka(2007 to 2011)(Ref 16).

Refer Table 2 for the rigid follow of World Fatal Cancers with Total Uranium mined since 1945.

Referring to Table 2, the observed worldwide annual estimates of all fatal cancers as a percent of their maximum during 1990 to 2016(max in 2016) rigidly follow the percent activity,Bq, of cumulative annual quantities of uranium mined in the world as determined by the correlation coefficient 0.99, df=24, p(t-test)= 5.15E-22, and by the Chi-sq test(df=25,p>0.9999). The ECRR 2010 dose coefficient based estimate of excess world fatal cancers agree significantly with the estimates in Ref 8 as shown in Table 2, Chi-sq Test, df=25, p> 0.9999.

5.0 Conclusions

The causal inference that uranium use(TENORM) is the cause of world cancer epidemic is firmly established in this investigation. The RMP estimated uranium use is also similarly established as the cause of observed hotspot of cancer in Mysore taluka and district as well as in total in the Southern Karnataka districts Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Mandya, Hassan and Kodagu. This study may be confirmed by applying the precautionary principle and conducting a thorough audit of cancers in each district and taluka of India on a war footing with a long duration data collection and transparent availability of data on a public website asap. In this connection an online Atlas for Worldwide uranium use on a micro basis in the form of an input output table including incident cancers and fatal cancers is long overdue. See Ref 20 for an assessment of internal radioactive emitters. And how Uranium's infinite biological effectiveness is ignored elsewhere(21,22). See also Ref 23.

5.0 References

1. R. Rajaraman. 2008. Estimates of India’s Fissile Material Stocks. Science and Global Security, 16:74–86.

https://www.princeton.edu/sgs/publications/sgs/archive/Rajaraman-Vol-16-No-3.pdf

2. Census 2011. Mysore District,Karnataka.

http://censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/2923_PART_B_DCHB_MYSORE.pdf

3. http://censuskarnataka.gov.in/presentation-PCA-2011-Press%20Release.pdf

4. http://ssakarnataka.gov.in/rmsa/pdffiles/stgenprofile.pdf

5. http://des.kar.nic.in/sites/Report%20on%20Men%20and%20Women%20in%20Karnataka%20year%20[2009...2012]/Men%20and%20women%202013-14.pdf

6. http://cancerindia.org.in/statistics/

7. http://www.healthdata.org/india

8. https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#global-perspective-on-cancer-deaths

9. Development of an Atlas of Cancer in at

 http://www.ncdirindia.org/ncrp/ca/DistrictFilter.aspx?DistrictCode=2926

10.   https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241454930_An_Estimate_of_India%27s_Uranium_Enrichment_Capacity

11.

http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/global-burden-disease-study-2016-gbd-2016-cancer-incidence-mortality-years-life-lost-years

12.

http://isssp.in/uranium-in-india-availability-use-and-controls/

13

     Global uranium mine production from 2002 to 2017 (in metric tons). Statistica.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263548/uranium-mine-production-worldwide-since-2002/

14.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-a-probability-density-function-and-a-cumulative-distribution-function#

15.

https://www.businessinsider.in/no-indias-rate-of-cancer-incidence-isnt-among-the-lowest-in-the-world/articleshow/64464471.cms

16

Madhu B, Srinath KM, Rajendran V, Devi MP, Ashok NC, Balasubramanian S. Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Breast Cancer - Case Study of Southern Karnataka, India. Journal of Clinical and Diagnostic Research : JCDR. 2016;10(4):LC20-LC24. doi:10.7860/JCDR/2016/19042.7666.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4866136/

17.

2010 Recommendations of the ECRR

The Health Effects of Exposure to Low Doses of Ionising Radiation

Edited by:

Chris Busby, with Rosalie Bertell, Inge Schmitz Feuerhake Molly Scott Cato

and Alexey Yablokov

Published for the ECRR by:

Green Audit Press, Castle Cottage, Aberystwyth, SY23 1DZ, United Kingdom
 http://www.inaco.co.jp/isaac/shiryo/pdf/ECRR_2010_recommendations_of_the_european_committee_on_radiation_risk.pdf

18

https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2006/6096-40-years-uranium.pdf

19 Production from mines (tonnes U)

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx

20. Radioactive Radiation, the true cause of Cancer at
 https://owndoc.com/cancer/radiation-true-cause-of-cancer/
extracted on 6 October 2018.

21. Carelessly abandoning uranium to the environment. See how Uranium's infinite bioogical effectiveness is ignored:
 http://www.wise-uranium.org/pdf/jadkoide.pdf

22. A look at Iraq's cancers at
 https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2013/Health%20and%20Health%20Care%20Decline%20in%20Iraq.pdf

23.  https://highcourtchd.gov.in/sub_pages/top_menu/about/events_files/Depuran.pdf